Barta Uh Oh

[TommyTuna]

Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 1

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on July 18, 2006


conventional and microwave satellite data...along with information
from surrounding buoys...indicate the low pressure system located
about 250 nmi southeast of the North Carolina coast has become much
better organized this morning. Banding features have improved in
the southeastern semicircle where an earlier Quikscat overpass
indicated several 20-25 kt uncontaminated wind vectors.
Therefore...the system as been upgraded to Tropical Depression Two.

The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 360/04...mainly
due to some uncertainty in the exact location of the low-level
center relative to the developing convective pattern. However...
long term satellite loops and microwave data suggest that a general
slow northward motion has been occurring for the past 6-9 hours. The
depression is caught in a break in the subtropical ridge whose axis
lies along about 35n latitude. Most of the global models have keyed
on a weak low pressure system located about 200 nmi northeast of
TD-2. That system shows no signs of development. The only models
that have initialized this system with any reasonable accuracy
during the past 24 hours has been the NAM and UKMET models. The 3
GFS-based BAM models are almost on top of each other and take the
cyclone into North Carolina near Cape Lookout in 36-48 hours. The
NAM and UKMET move the system over or just east of the North
Carolina Outer Banks in about 48 hours. The latter scenario is
preferred at this time due to the uncertainty in just how far south
an upper-low will dig that is currently situated west-southwest of
the depression. If the upper-low digs a little farther south than
forecast by the models...then a more northwestward motion similar
to the BAM models could occur. Due to the this uncertainty...a
tropical storm watch has been issued for the eastern portions of
North Carolina.

The intensity forecast is somewhat tricky. The SHIPS model only
brings the cyclone up to about 45 kt in 48 hours. However... this
conservative intensity forecast appears to be due in part to poorly
initialized SST conditions. The SHIPS model currently indicates the
system is over 80f SSTs...whereas surrounding ship and buoy data
indicate SSTs are 82-83f under the core of the cyclone. In
addition...the SHIPS model indicates that upper-level divergence
will be poor at best and... therefore... a negative contributing
factor. In contrast...latest satellite imagery indicates cirrus
outflow has been expanding to the northwest... while an upper-level
low to the southeast of the cyclone is beginning to enhance the
outflow to the south. Given this favorable developing outflow
pattern... the intensity forecast is higher than the SHIPS model.


Forecast positions and Max winds


initial 18/1500z 32.5n 73.4w 30 kt
12hr VT 19/0000z 33.3n 73.7w 35 kt
24hr VT 19/1200z 33.9n 74.1w 40 kt
36hr VT 20/0000z 34.7n 74.8w 45 kt
48hr VT 20/1200z 35.5n 75.0w 55 kt
72hr VT 21/1200z 36.9n 74.7w 55 kt
96hr VT 22/1200z 38.5n 71.0w 50 kt
120hr VT 23/1200z 42.0n 63.0w 40 kt...becoming extratropical

[Capt. Duane]

Ahhhh....First Hurricane(Tropical Storm) party of the year at my house in Kill Devil Hills!!!! Who coming over?!?!?!?!

[Capt-D]

Lets just hope for the tourny's sake this thing doesn't stall!

-D

[brandon558]

Lets just hope for the tourny's sake this thing doesn't stall!

-D

yea for real!!

[O-SEA-D]

This is not looking to hot

This Afternoon
N to NE winds 10 to 20 kt...except shifting winds 20 to 30 kt within 50nm of tropical deppression. Seas 3 to 7 ft...except 9 to 11 ft within 50 nm of depression. Showers and tstms near depression otherwise iosolated.
Tonight Through Wed Night
N to NE winds 20 to 30 kt tonight becoming S to se Wed E portion...except shifting winds 35 to 45 within 50nm of tropical storm. Seas building to 8 to 12 ft...except to 12 to 18 ft within 50n of tropical storm. Showers and tstms near tropical storm...otherwise scattered.
Thu
Winds becoming S to SW 20 to 30 kt...except shifting winds 40 to 50 kt near tropical storm. Seas 9 to 14 ft...except 14 to 20 ft near tropical storm.
Fri
Winds becoming SW 15 to 25 kt. Seas becoming 6 to 10 ft.
Sat
SW winds decreasing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas subsiding to 4 to 7 ft...highest NE.

[Holy Smoke]

I'm sticking with the inshore forecast for now, the worst weather looks like it will be way way offshore



THIS AFTERNOON...SE WINDS 5 KT. SEAS AROUND 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 5 TO 10 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
AROUND 2 FT.
.WED...W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT BECOMING NW 10 TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN
THE EVENING...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.THU...NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS.
.THU NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT DECREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.FRI...SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS.
.SAT...SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

[Buddyb]

Everybody be safe...I certainly don't want to hear "Pedro" being called out to anybody this weekend.

Best of luck to all boats and we'll see ya at the docks.

[Glenn W]

All we can do is cross our fingers here. Same exact thing 3 or 4 days before Pirates Cove last year ( except it was a full cane). It veered NW and blew right by. Seems the weather forecasters can't figure out much at all with this storm ( not that I understood much of it in Tommy's post).
SHIT!!!!

[Sea Draggin]

Everybody be safe...I certainly don't want to hear "Pedro" being called out to anybody this weekend.

Agreed! Thats never good

[Water Damage]

lookin like a bit of a "sporty" event for sure!

might change my plans of exactly where to fish, at least for Friday. If it keeps this up I may not have many competitors in the outboard division! Friday may be a good day to stay close and just catch "a fish" to weigh in or something.

Hell, the experts can't seem to figger this one out anyway - hopefully it will blast right on thru and away. Sadly this will likely keep participation down somewhat.