Wind Gusts from Yesterday

[On The Edge]

The fish will be in the water somewhere after the storm ?

Except for the ones in our fish boxes

[amarshall]

Except for the ones in our fish boxes

Been watching this all morning. This morning it was heading west, this afternoon east. Models all over the place.

All of the professional forecasters are focused on the 40/70 benchmark, which lies 100 SE of Montauk. It's like a goal post. It swings inside CC gets hit. It swings outside it curves out to sea.

It's too close to call right now.

Edit: I'd say 75% of the professional mets are calling for this as a miss out to sea. That could change in an instant.

Edit 2: Reading a post about David Brown on Channel 5. This is some serious business for ratings and the Cape Cod Chamber of Commerce. This could KILL Cape Cod businesses this weekend.

I'm going surfing. Tons of Danielle swell still coming in.

[CindyLou]

GREAT surf yesterday...in the water for 3.5hrs. Still looks good today. Unfortunately I'm out of town this weekend (if my flight takes off Friday!). Extra lines on the boats, and enjoy the surf!

P.S. Is it just me, or does the fact that 75% of mets are forecasting a miss scare anyone else? We all know how good these guys are at accurately predicting weather.

[amarshall]

GREAT surf yesterday...in the water for 3.5hrs. Still looks good today. Unfortunately I'm out of town this weekend (if my flight takes off Friday!). Extra lines on the boats, and enjoy the surf!

P.S. Is it just me, or does the fact that 75% of mets are forecasting a miss scare anyone else? We all know how good these guys are at accurately predicting weather.

Surf was as good as it gets in MA last night (except for the crowds). 75 degree water and head high.

Models are still going east of Nantucket by 50 - 75 miles. This is a close close close call. After the 11 am models come out, you cape people should know whether or not you're making a run to Home Depot tonight.

[amarshall]

getting real interesting

Matt Noyes: Broadcast Meteorologist There has been nearly a 100 mile northward shift in hurricane guidance early this morning. The average guidance track is now closer to New England than the NHC forecast. Would like to see full suite of new model guidance (comes in thru early afternoon) before jumping. This has been a concern for me given how this storm matches up against history, referenced in the pre-dawn technical discussion.

[CaptainCJ35]

A cat 2 direct hit to the Cape is horrifying... any discussions of potential storm surge?

[CindyLou]

A cat 2 direct hit to the Cape is horrifying... any discussions of potential storm surge?

From wunderground.com:

Impact of Earl on New England
The NOGAPS model brings Earl closest to the coast of New England, predicting the west eyewall of the the hurricane will pass over Nantucket at about 2am Saturday morning, and the tip of Cape Cod a few hours later. If this track verifies, 40+ mph winds would affect southeastern Massachusetts for a period of 6 - 12 hours beginning at about 8pm EDT Friday night. Earl should be a weaker Category 1 or 2 hurricane then, with hurricane-force winds extending 30 miles to the left of its track. Hurricane conditions would then affect the eastern tip of Long Island, coastal Rhode Island, and Southeast Massachusetts. Earl's radius of tropical storm-force winds to the north, over land, will probably be about 150 miles, so locations from Central Long Island to southern Boston would experience sustained winds of 40 mph in this worst-case model scenario. A storm surge of 3 - 5 feet might occur in Long Island Sound, and 2 - 3 feet along the south coast of Long Island. A deviation to the left, with a direct hit on eastern Long Island and Providence, Rhode Island, would probably be a $10 billion disaster, as the hurricane would hit a heavily populated area and drive a drive a 5 - 10 foot storm surge up Buzzards Bay and Narragansett Bay. The odds of this occurring are around 5%, according to the latest NHC wind probability forecast. The forecast is calling for a 25% chance of hurricane-force winds on Nantucket, 8% in Providence, 6% in Boston, and 18% in Hyannis. Keep in mind that the average error in position for a 3-day NHC forecast is 185 miles, which is about how far offshore Earl is predicted to be from New England early Saturday morning.

[tmack92]

With all the warm water in New England why would Earl drop to a catagory 2 before hitting???

[amarshall]

With all the warm water in New England why would Earl drop to a catagory 2 before hitting???

A strong category 2

We'll see what the morning models bring. Last night there was a little wobble in the track more east.

Any wobble by 30 miles could be HUGE.