whats the tuna deal

[garonmailman]

i think its safe to say that last year was the best tuna season in a long time for a lot of people. Whats going to happen this year? better, same , worse, bigger fish smaller fish price going up price going down or is it still to early to tell??????

[backman]

Forty Two

[nsvencer]

ESA

[tuna9292]

Just got word that tuna prices are through going to be through the roof? has anyone heard anything else.

[CaptainAlex]

Wrong - prices are gonna be way low ... talked to several buyers ... don't believe the hype

[garonmailman]

i hope your right tuna9292

[Heli Sports]

Tuna prices in Japan have generally been very poor since the earthquake/tsunami, in spite of very low supplies of both domestic and imported product. But occasionally there have been some high prices paid at Tsukiji. In April there were a few shipments of very high quality wild Bluefin from Greece. High price for these fish went up to 8,000 Yen/kg, and there were a couple of Giants from Aomori in Northern Japan that achieved up to 22,000 Yen/kg. Still, a very high percentage of imported shipments are going unsold at auction. Since rolling electrical blackouts have ceased in Tokyo, prices for farm raised Bluefin have stabilized somewhat. But market conditions remain very soft.

There is some speculation that because a large percentage of Japan's fishing fleets and production/transport infrastructure were destroyed by the tsunami, that prices for imported tuna would be strong. I believe that any shortage of product will be offset by the socio economic climate in post-disaster Japan. Japan is a very proud and nationalistic society. They have suffered over 20,000 casualties and hundreds of billions in damages. I think periods of traditionally higher consumption like celebratory holidays and festivals are going to be subdued, and the Japanese economy has been devastated. The nation is still mourning their losses and still dealing with the ramifications of a nuclear crisis. I don't think the Japanese will be spending much money or partying untill the Bonenkai holiday period in December.

Still, life will go on in Japan and there will be very high prices paid for top quality Boston and Canadian Bluefin when supplies are not excessive. However, even moderate production for several consecutive days is going to result in weak market conditions with many fish left unsold at auction. During periods of high production from New England and Canada, the Japanese tuna markets will likely collapse, with even B+ quality tuna failing to solicit bids at Tsukiji. Tuna with Yake or compromised meat color will continue to be problematic. Also, prices for large fish are going to be particularly poor unless supplies are tight. Of course this is really nothing new and has been the case for several years.

On a positive note, the strong Yen is going to offset weak market conditions somewhat, with an auction price of 2000 Yen/kg returing approximately $5/lb net to the fisherman. Currently, the domestic tuna market is very firm. There is relatively little Bigeye/Yellowfin being imported into the U.S. from Vietnam and Indonesia. It's likely that the U.S. tuna market will remain strong through the Summer. Hopefully New England dealers will exploit this opportunity.

There are also several factors currently playing out which could significantly affect tuna market conditions in Japan. Seine season began in the Mediterranean Sea two days ago. Will the Spanish and French fleets be able to fill cages without access to the Gulf of Sidra? Will eco terrorist vessels significantly disrupt lawful production? Will misguided boycott campaigns by uninfomed NGO's affect demand for Bluefin? Will the threat of an ESA listing effect market conditions?

Of course predicting tuna prices is no different from playing the stock market, or speculating on any commodity. Who can say for sure?

[garonmailman]

HELI your the man once again great stuff and thanks again for the info

[twofinbluna]

NOBODY can predict prices, so just go catch fish and hope for the best. You can find someone who will tell you whatever you want to hear, or someone who will tell you exactly what you dont want to hear, and everywhere in between. The Japanese are going to continue to eat tuna regardless of anything that happened over there. And we need to hope that the gullible general public stops believing everything they read from the (green) media here in the US and will buy some of our fish. The biggest issue is catching our fish- everything else is out of our control.

And while we will be posting some stuff on this before the season begings, if you want to help ABTA, make sure you are selling to dealers who are part of ABTA, otherwise you will not be helping us fight all these important battles. We are working nonstop on all these issues and we cannot keep doing it without money. The dealers that are part of ABTA are: Maguro (Robert Fitzpatrick), Nantucket Fish Co. (Andy Baler), Compass Seafoods (PJ) and North Atlantic (Bob Kliss). Those 4 dealers are helping ABTA, the rest are not. Hopefully by the beginning of the season Yankee Co-Op will be contributing as well, will let people know.

[garonmailman]

this is also some great stuff!!! i think a whole new thread with those dealers and how they are the only ones that contribute to ABTA before the season stars would be a good idea. those dealers need more attention for chipping in