Weather Models...Nastiness on the Horizon

[amarshall]

Something to think about....10-13 day weather models all seem to be seeing the same solution.

I know they can't get the forecast right for 12 hrs ahead of time. Watch the forecasts next week.

[CaptainCJ35]

Don't like the looks of that at all...

Where'd you get that data? Good stuff.

[amarshall]

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New England Meteorologists forum...some of this stuff is WAY over my head. If you can read between the lines, there's a ton of stuff to learn. These guys get boners for thunderstorms, snowstorms and hurricanes. I've learned more about weather in the last 6 months by researching what they are saying in here.

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index....ropical-thead/


Here's an index of weather models

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models.html


Another good technical discussion by Matt Noyes from NECN. He's awesome and very approachable for questions over email or Facebook.

The bottom line of this is that I believe we're entering one of the most tropically favorable patterns for the U.S. East Coast that I've seen in many years. We did see a similar pattern in the summer of 2006, but tropical activity was quite limited that year. This time around, we're looking at a parade over Africa and the likelihood of diminishing west-African shear. This may mean a parade of storms in the coming two to four weeks, with an open door for the East Coast of the United States. There's very little question in my mind that the tropics will steal headlines and weathercasts in the weeks to come, and while nobody can ever profess knowledge over landfalls so far out with so many delicate interactions that come into play, I also think it's a very difficult arguement against this evidence for a much higher-than-normal risk for the Bahamas and East Coast.

http://www.mattnoyes.net/new_england...-seaboard.html

[CaptainCJ35]

A Forecast of 975 mb makes it a cat 1 hurricane way to close for comfort... though most storms in that position will still track out to sea. The canyons will be getting gut punched for a good while before during and after though.

[On The Edge]

tis the season

[amarshall]

I know it's way too early. I'll be watching this for the next week and will post updates from different models.

Loop

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/mod...alGFSLoop.html

[SoBoSlow]

Amarshall these links are GREAT!! I posted a couple of weeks ago asking if anyone had some good weather forecasting resourcs...these are definately well beyond what I have been able to find. Any chance you want to add to the list (or name a couple of good reads)?

[backman]

cool - my boss is on vacation that week and I'm *it*. let it blow

[rirockhound]

Cool links. thanks.

now we just need the models to align for Fri-Sun so we can figure out when to run....

[scottne]

You need to be a member to view this.

New England Meteorologists forum...some of this stuff is WAY over my head. If you can read between the lines, there's a ton of stuff to learn. These guys get boners for thunderstorms, snowstorms and hurricanes. I've learned more about weather in the last 6 months by researching what they are saying in here.

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index....ropical-thead/


Here's an index of weather models

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models.html


Another good technical discussion by Matt Noyes from NECN. He's awesome and very approachable for questions over email or Facebook.




http://www.mattnoyes.net/new_england...-seaboard.html

The EUSWX site and it's predecessors are one of the biggest reasons I don't get seasick. A lot of the guys there are professional forecasters some of whom are names we'd all recognize. The NOAA people are on there quite frequently as well.

The GFS and NAM are the two basic NCEP models. There are a couple of great sources that can be faster such as:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

The 0 and 12 UTC runs are considered "full" the off hour runs can be sketchy at times. A few days ago when the regular forecasts looked decent down south those maps revealed a reasonable low moving off the coast of NJ/DE which came to fruition.

Another great site with maps that will help mariners more:

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php...&archive=false

here is the other shorter range model surface winds:
http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php...&archive=false


Keep in mind anything beyond about 3-4 days....you know how it goes the forecasting science has only progressed so far.

Now if they can just tell me where the BFT are I'd be a lot happier.

The newer model runs have moved the timing way up and have a pretty strong sustainted ENE wind developing in about 5 days to the south as a big low pressure develops and the net result is a 4-5 day gale out over the water...you can flip through the times from here:

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php...&archive=false