Reality check on interpreting weather forecasts

[AT Grimaldi]

OK.

I have been blown out a few times recently. I have a 24' Romarine and am comfortable in 2-4, can do 3-5, but don't enjoy it.

I have a pass from the war department this Sunday. My plan was to pick up some live pogies and live troll or kite fish on the SWC or PH as life and conditions dictate. Here is the source of weather forecasts I am using:

http://forecast.weather.gov/shmrn.ph...250&syn=anz200

It looks like the SWC and PH are a bit too much for me coming into Sat.

That being said, if I look to the forecast for CCB, I am good go to based on this source:

http://forecast.weather.gov/shmrn.ph...231&syn=anz200

Am I reading these forecasts correctly?

Safety and comfort are my number 1 concerns.

If we have to launch out of the cape, I was going to rig up some of the greenie hoo I got doewn in NC earlier this year. I have 2 50s and a 30. Any input? I guess I am asking, when do you make the final call on if your going and where it shall be?

Many thanks. You guys are very forthcoming with information. I am just getting into tuna and have learned so much here that makes so much MORE sense when I am on the water.

- ATG

[On The Edge]

I use different sources from different places to gather weather intell and then combine all the intell available to make a reasonable prediction of what the conditions may be be on a particular day or over a period of time. One of the usefull tools i use is a wind forcast map like this. http://www.fishweather.com/windandwh...&timeoffset=-1

If you look at this wind forcast map it is predicting it is going to blow good out of the SSE Sat and Sat evening and get bigger on Sun.
It is only Tuesday and Sunday is a ways off yet so i would continue to watch it but I would not bet on getting out on Sunday.

Point is do not just go by what one source says. NOAA for instance has been notoriously off lately.

NOAA's Offshore forcast covers too broad of a range to get an accurate forcast particularly this time of year. Even the inshore focast covers to broad of an area to get a good local forcast this time of year.

This site can be helpfull to but lately has been a little screwy with the wind and seas not jiving. http://www.weather.gov/forecasts/wfo...xMarineDay.php

Bottom line we have made the GO - NOGO call as late as at the dock and as soon as days before. Every time is different. It is not just about what the weather is now, but what it was the day before and what is it going to do between departure and return times.

[Reel Pursuit]

You can also check the National Data Buoy Center and get real time conditions from the. Buoys in the areas you expect to travel and fish.

[sushi42]

Hey AT, it's a little early still. Seen forecasts like this turn the day or night before a full 180 degrees and give us the green light. Just keep your eye on it daily and follow other replies guidance.

[Bill_N]

Here's another good source -

http://www.buoyweather.com/wxnav6.js...E&program=Maps

Always assume the worst for forecasted conditions when planning a trip.

[FullStrikeAngler]

Wind Forecasts

A commercial gillnetter told me about this site and swears by it. I have used it this summer and found it to be very accurate.

Click on the buoy closest to your area of operation.

Tight Lines

[MarkNY]

great subject as this is something i think about all of the time. just about the whole month of september was lost for us due to weather forecasts. we fish in a 21' boat so we have to pick our days. we use all the internet resources we can and also make our decision to go/no go as late as possible. its amazing how fast the forecast changes. recently, we made the decision to cancel on the morning of at 3 in the morning when the forecast the night before was decent. very frustrating. with that said, i dont have alot of faith in forecasts. i always check the weather after a particular day that we had planned to fish when we didnt go. more often than not, there were some great opportunites throughout the day where things settled down. ie: slack tide, air temps. its easy to become obsessed with weather forecasts so our new rule for the rest of the season is "no "small craft", no problem". dont mind taking a bumpy ride for the opportunity to get out there as much as possible. best, mark

[chumtini]

Like others have said, it's a little premature to call it. Right now, it looks like it's going to blow boots on Sun. 30 knot winds is just short of gale force (34 kts) Monday looks nice

A bunch of weather data sources were posted here:
Weather

Bouyweather forecast for south end of stellwagen bank:

Saturday 10/3
Morning
Windy conditions with choppy seas. Small craft advisory. Small short period wind waves.
Winds: S 17 to 23 knots
Seas: SSE 3 feet at 4 sec.
Afternoon
Very windy with large choppy seas. Small craft advisory. Small short period wind waves.
Winds: S 20 to 27 knots
Seas: SSE 4 feet at 4 sec.
Sunday 10/4

Morning
Windy conditions with choppy seas. Small craft advisory. Small short period wind waves.
Winds: S 16 to 22 knots
Seas: SSE 4 feet at 4 sec.
Afternoon
Very windy with large choppy seas. Small craft advisory. Small short period wind waves.
Winds: SSE 22 to 30 knots
Seas: SSE 4 feet at 4 sec.

Monday 10/5
Morning
Breezy whitecapping conditions with moderate choppy seas. Small short period wind waves.
Winds: NW 13 to 18 knots
Seas: ESE 3 feet at 8 sec.
Afternoon
Breezy whitecapping conditions with moderate choppy seas. Small short period wind waves.
Winds: WNW 12 to 16 knots
Seas: E 3 feet at 10 sec.

[On The Edge]

Friday looks good too

[CindyLou]

I know I'm lucky to be employed, but man...this effing weekend weather/wind is killing me recently. I guess it's time to pick a weekday and play hooky!