Post Game Analysis:

[SoBoSlow]

Although I do not have my own boat to get out to the Canyons, I like to follow the weather and the water and try to figure out where the bight is going to be…you know, prepping for the day I buy a Megabucks ticket and win.

Last week I saw (what looked to me like):
- A sweet weekend weather window open from Fri Night/Sat Morning through Sun and then push back to Sat Midday through Monday.
- Sat shots (just Rutgers) showing a huge, sharp, break out in Lydonia that was going to (and did) back into Oceanographers then Welker and then Hydros right through that window.

I was sure I knew where the bight was going to be and, as a result, where every offshore boat in New England was going to head (I even tried to talk a couple of friends with smaller, but capable, boats into going…cowards!! ). Hydro-Oceanographer.

When I look at the composite Rutgers chart from 7/28 of Hydro-Ocean the water that was going to back in was “newish” and had a sharp Red/Green break (call it 82/68) by 7/31 it dissipated some and was more of a mixed Red/Yellow break (call it 77/70). The water coming into W Atlantis looked (to me) to be more broken up with Orange/Yellow breaks (call it 72/75).

Looking at the reports (which is not necessarily an accurate reflection of actual trips) it seems the vast majority of boats went to W. Atlantis and further West and not points East. Based upon the reports (small sample size) it does not appear one area was hotter than another.

So, what am I missing? It looks (to me) like the Hydro-Ocean was going to be where the bight was but it wasn’t:
1) Why wasn’t it there?
2) Why weren’t the boats there? (My guesses are: other sources/charts, too far from home port, too far from any land, safety in numbers, un/available pre-trip intelligence, benefit of on site intelligence, pack mentality)
3) Do boats coming out of the Outer Cape (and Cape Ann) go to the Hydro-Ocean while Upper/South Cape (down to RI) go to the Atlantises? (I see that most of the reports here come from Hyannis/Falmouth/RI boats…is Harwich the place to be then because you have direct access to both)?
4) Basically, why did you go where you went and, if you had it to do over again is that where you would go? (seems trips and catches were solid but, most are saying…it could/should have been even better)…Please understand: I guarantee your trips were better than sitting on Nauset beach staring SE and saying 115 miles that way the bight is going-off right now!!!

[backman]

The weather window started Sat mid day; no one in their right mind was going long to the east Sat AM w/ a following NW wind against a S swell unless they were prepared for a long 18-20 knot slog. As we all saw - it got sloppy Monday AM, that would not have been a fun ride home from the east.

I for one had to be back at the dock at 4 PM Sunday which also contributed to a 92 mile chip shot versus a 120 mile drive. Life gets in the way of data sometimes

Also- I can make West Atlantis worst case in 4.5 hr's without needing a fuel bladder. Hydro is 5 hr's + the P.I.A. of a bladder which adds at least an hour of work to the drive.

Finally - FWIW - my experience is that a 69-72 or 72-75 degree break is much better than those massive 7 degree breaks for reasons I do not understand.

[amarshall]

I went to Hydro Friday night in a 38 Northern Bay. It was everything it was forecasted to be and more. Around 10 pm it was blowing 20-30 knots. We had a squall come through that was easily 30+ knots in blinding rain. By morning it was 6-8 with some 10s thrown in and a very very short period. If we were not in a battleship it would have been a scary night. It was not comfortable as it was

There was a great break but we found very little fish. It looked amazing on paper but for some reason we couldn't make it work. It was my first canyon trip but for the guys I was with they've been there combined hundreds of times. We listened to the longliners out East and they were doing very well.

It took us 4.5 hrs from fueling up at Bass River. We went out through pollock rip channel and down the shipping lanes past the BB and BA buoy. On the way down it was sloppy inside but once we hit the shipping lanes it was glass calm. We could have cut some time off cutting across some of the rips but his boat draws 5.5 ft of water. On saturday it was sloppy 3-6s on the way home for the first two hours.

[JSeas]

I think another factor is that the break on the eastern canyons had just moved in. Therefore, no one had fished it yet and there was no "intel" coming back. It is always "risky" being the first one out to a new break, since for many reasons it may or may not hold fish. There were numerous reports of decent to good fishing near W. Atlantis.

So looking at the narrow weather window, lack of "intel" and confirmed fishing near W. Atlantis it was a much better risk management to head to W. Atlantis (in my opinion).

JSeas

[southport]

I would agree with both JSeas and Backman
We looked at the break and thought about running East but had good reports of fish to the west. I do not have the range to get to Oceanographer, Lydonia or Munson which looked to hold significantly better water than Hydro. Consequently, it became an easy decision to run further west. I would expect we will hear excellent reports of fish in Hydro very soon.

[Fffiisshh0]

A month ago when that first good looking bubble slid up WA, and then moved towards Block, we tried it, it had fish, lots of small fish but enough 30-50 lbers to make the trips worthwhile. There were incredible amount of marlin in that water. It moved back off the edge one trip, quite abit from SST's less than 24 hrs old. It was the week after the 2 back to back north blows. It was more than 10 miles from where we thought it was!! Its getting washed outa bit, but still has good bunches of fish, scattered. THere have been good bigeye, marlin, tuna coming from that area for over a month! I think everyone is looking east as that next major eddy pushes onto the shelf!! We shall see very shortly!! The distance to the east canyons is long haul for CT, RI, and even cape boats. With round trip fuel bill 1-2K most guys want to know for sure there is a good bite before making a long trip even longer! There are several guys on here that know the deal with canyon fishing, read water and more importantly the weather, and produce time after time !! Seat time is best!! My first canyon trip was 1981, my goal each season is 10-15 trips per year, some years its ben as few as 3, thats why when a window opens, you really have to do all you can to go for it !! Good luck, and if you cant get there, Larry does the most outstanding job of bringing the trip to us through his discriptive narratives!!!