IRENE

[JSeas]

Looks like we have our first storm to watch! Thoughts?

Fishweather currently has it as a direct hit Sunday night into Monday for Cape Cod. Backman... Thoughts?

Hate these storms. Last year dodged a bullet and sat out a storm on our boats in Falmouth Harbor. All I got was a bad hangover! This year??

[backman]

thinking its worth watching very closely over the next 4 days. NHC has it hitting SC on Sat ; does not project further.

Fishweather has it redeveloping after hitting land and Bob'ing us Sunday night. Not a comforting thought.

[Parapapam]

My hope is that it passes to the south, deep in the stream and finally dislodges some of the water in Oceanographers, Hydro, etc and pushes it west into Veatch, Atlantis and the Tails and up onto the shelf.

I am sure those with access for the eastern canyon's only care if that water moves to save gas. But I don't have access to a boat that can run that far. So it need it to break away and spin to the west.

We will see.... I am a canyon boat 'ho in anycase...

Mike

[twofinbluna]

Looks like we have our first storm to watch! Thoughts?

Fishweather currently has it as a direct hit Sunday night into Monday for Cape Cod. Backman... Thoughts?

Hate these storms. Last year dodged a bullet and sat out a storm on our boats in Falmouth Harbor. All I got was a bad hangover! This year??

They have no idea whats going to happen tomorrow, let alone 6 days from now...but that does not mean that they will not end up being right. I really hope that this thing comes nowhere near here, last thing we need right now is a big storm. Been blowing off Maine essentially nonstop for weeks, ocean is never going to settle down before the season ends at this rate.

[HarborRd]

Three models have it smashing S/N Carolina, and three have it smashing us. I recall GFDL as being the most accurate. UKMET and NOGAPS are supposed to be almost identical models....and yet they having it doing two completely different things. The ensemble model has it going right up the Canal, while WUnderground's 5-day forecast has it hitting Wilmington NC. So nobody has any idea.

[Cape Fisherman]

I've been using zyGrib for awhile now, and find them to be spot on with short term and moderate term forecasts. Granted next Sunday is a ways out, but this doesn't look good....

[storm petrel]

The latest "models" have it going closer to Florida, then landfall in the Carolinas. If it goes over land for any time at all, it will degrade and hit us as rain & wind.......not on a hurricane scale I hope!!!!

Here's the latest............. http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2011...e.html?_r=1&hp
......read carefully, it pretty much says no one really knows where it's gonna go!!! Uh oh...........

[Dauntless]

At Wunderground, the forecaster Discussion for Irene points out:

" It is important to remind users not to focus
on the exact forecast track...especially at days 4 and 5...since
the most recent 5-year average errors at those forecast times are
200 and 250 miles...respectively."

[amarshall]

I encourage you to register for this website and start to educate yourself on weather forecasting. This is the New England forum talking about Irene. (skip ahead is up to 52 pages now)

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.p...rricane-irene/

The mets have woodies that's for sure. My sisters wedding is Saturday at Pomponesset inn. This should be interesting.

[seacoast]

History tells us the 4-5 days out tracks vary on average 200-250 miles.
The size of the storm is a big concern at this point-we will be affected.
Tonight's professional reports, Weather channel all agree we should watch closely.
Boat yards will have to make the call later tomorrow and early thursday-as it takes several days to get all the boats out if needed. Choosing the right yard and smart home port goes along way during this time. Make sure you know their plan and if your insurance plan covers emergency haul out.
Irene please don't blow all our bait away!