Effing Bill?

[Animal 1]

Effing hurricane Bill?Are you effing kidding me?We finally got the boat to Plymouth,ready to fish the eff outta the thing,and emeffing hurricane Bill?Good God!I'm ready to slit my frigging wrists. How will this affect the fishing after it's passed?I hate my frigging life.

[AT Grimaldi]

If you slash your wrists, and it somehow works, can I have all your tuna gear?

I was going to try for Sunday up there, but not into getting my fillings replaced - again.

- ATG

[amarshall]

Anyone else not convinced of their current track?

This morning's ensemble tracks... notice they are taking the one furthest from land as the best probable track.



Here's the discussion

during the last pass through the northeastern eyewall...an AirForce Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft reported 123 kt winds at700 mb...which is down almost 20 kt from earlier. An eyewalldropsonde suggests the surface winds in that area were 105-110 kt. Based on this and a slight weakening of the satellite cloud pattern...the initial intensity is reduced to 110 kt. Analysesfrom CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin show that Bill has been
experiencing 10-15 kt of westerly vertical wind shear. This may be starting to diminish...as the cirrus outflow is increasing in the western semicircle.
The initial motion is 305/16. Bill is moving toward a weakness inthe subtropical ridge caused by two mid/upper-level troughs...one
to the east-northeast of Bermuda and one between Bermuda and the United States. The second trough is forecast to move southward and westward during the next 24-48 hr...causing Bill to gradually turn more northward as the systems interact. After 48 hr...all guidance
forecasts a large deep-layer trough to move into the eastern United States...with a large mid/upper-level ridge building over the central Atlantic. This combination should steer Bill northward and eventually northeastward into the westerlies. The track guidance is tightly clustered for the first 48-72 hr...then become somewhat divergent in both direction and speed. The GFDN and NOGAPS are on the left side of the guidance envelope...bringing the center of Bill just southeast of New England and then over Nova Scotia and
Newfoundland. The corrected consensus models call for a much sharper eastward turn...keeping the center well away from New England and Canada. The track forecast is between these extremes and down the middle of the guidance envelope in best overall agreement with the GFDL. It should be noted that Bill will probably not turn as sharply between 72-96 hr as implied by the track graphic...and thus is likely to pass closer to New England than the graphic would suggest.

The large-scale models suggest the current shear should diminish during the next 24 hr...and this basis some re-intensification is expected. The intensity forecast is most uncertain during the
24-72 hr time frame as Bill interacts with the current western
Atlantic trough. This trough could cause shear to weaken the
system. However...some of the large-scale models forecast
increased upper-level divergence over Bill...which could strengthen
the hurricane. For now...the intensity forecast calls for little
change in strength as a compromise. After 72 hr...Bill should
weaken rapidly as it moves over colder sea surface temperatures and
into strong vertical wind shear. Extratropical transition should
begin around 96 hr and be complete by 120 hr.

Large swells generated by this hurricane will affect the northern
Leeward Islands...the Bahamas...Bermuda and most of the eastern
U.S. Coast during the next few days. These swells will likely
cause extremely dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents.
Please consult statements issued by your local weather office for
more details.

Forecast positions and Max winds

[striper swiper]

To answer your question. The fishing will actually get better and last longer because the water will get warmer down deep from the turmoil. Right now the thermocline isn't very deep When that happens the fishing ends abrubtly in early Oct. for the non canyon crowd. Mostly because the weather windows get really short as the cold water induces more wind. near shore. With this storm coming close it will bring warm water in deep charging the rest of the column
You can still slice your wrists though as it will be one less boat out at the SWC

[On The Edge]

Dont hold your breath for sunday. Sat and Sunday are going tio be the worst part for those on the cape. I dont think we are going to get anywere near landfall but we will see some wind and surf from it. Look for it to start laying down early on Monday.

[MarkP]

I love tuna fishing in a big swell...

MarkP

[Animal 1]

We're pulling the boat tomorrow am.She'll get wet again Mon or Tue.At that point,hopefully,we'll find some big hungry fish.

[Animal 1]

We pulled her out Saturday am.We believe it was the right decision,since the Plymouth harbormasters were using the ramp to pull their boats at the same time.Anyhow,we're excited to splash her again,asap.Tuesday looks good.

[Verbal]

Does anyone think that the storm will push the warm water in closer? I'm talking about the water in and around the dump, south of the Vineyard. Is it possible that the fishy water that was there last week could be North of the claw after the storm blows through and things settle down? I'm looking forward to getting a satellite picture.