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Thread: What's going on-----

  1. #1
    Crab mustard is good bigeasy's Avatar
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    What's going on-----

    The economy is imploding. Every time a new measure to rescue the economy is announced the market plunges.

    Tim Geithner talks about TARP money in a semicoherent way and the market goes down 400 points.

    Obama signs stimulus, market down.

    Obama discusses mortgage fix, market down.

    The stock market is supposed to be a fairly sophisticated predictor of future of the economy. It seems to be telling us that things DON'T LOOK GOOD and there is no light at the end of the tunnel.

    What is going on???

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    I think Admin is going to let me have this space Surfergirl's Avatar
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    They are probably trying to get "bailed out" again.

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    I think Admin is going to let me have this space canyongear's Avatar
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    Gold vs Dow

    Looks like the bad news was known back in Oct..accelerated as the Stimulus package details became clearer on the 72 mile band..market radar that is.

    Nothing is safe..not even the world tuna producers index..geesh..
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails What's going on------goldvsdow.png  

    What's going on------atuna-world-stock-price-index.bmp  

    Last edited by canyongear; 02-24-2009 at 09:20 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bigeasy View Post
    The economy is imploding. Every time a new measure to rescue the economy is announced the market plunges.

    Tim Geithner talks about TARP money in a semicoherent way and the market goes down 400 points.

    Obama signs stimulus, market down.

    Obama discusses mortgage fix, market down.

    The stock market is supposed to be a fairly sophisticated predictor of future of the economy. It seems to be telling us that things DON'T LOOK GOOD and there is no light at the end of the tunnel.

    What is going on???
    Its the uncertainity that is the problem. Geitner's plan may be a good one but we don't know what it is. Put some flesh on it and things may change.

    I watched Charlie Rose last night and he had the head of Morgan Stanley on for an hour. He stated that some of the credit markets were loosening especially for corporate bonds to raise capital, pointing to one of the largest in history, $16 billion for pharma giant Roche. Lending for consumers was still stuck though because of the securitization market which frankly was not functioning at all.

    The stock market is acting on uncertainity and fear. And its a combination that always leads down.

  5. #5
    Crab mustard is good bigeasy's Avatar
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    Private money

    is sitting this one out. Warren Buffett ponied up 5 billion for GE and 5 billion for Goldman early on but as it became clear the Government has gone off the reservation the spigot for private investment has been turned off.

    The optimistic wind has gone out of the sails of our economic ship. We are taking on water. The bilge pump is not keeping up with the leak. The crew is running around on the deck in a chaotic manner mumbling , "I don't know what is going on".

    Where is 007, Batman, Kent Clark, or Arnold? Who will save our sorry skin? We put this crowd in power.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bigeasy View Post
    is sitting this one out. Warren Buffett ponied up 5 billion for GE and 5 billion for Goldman early on but as it became clear the Government has gone off the reservation the spigot for private investment has been turned off.

    The optimistic wind has gone out of the sails of our economic ship. We are taking on water. The bilge pump is not keeping up with the leak. The crew is running around on the deck in a chaotic manner mumbling , "I don't know what is going on".

    Where is 007, Batman, Kent Clark, or Arnold? Who will save our sorry skin? We put this crowd in power.
    Nobody is going to save our skins. We all brought this on by going on a borrowing spree that goes back to Nixon's days in the White House. We became an importing rather than an exporting nation and have been using credit since then to maintain the standard of living, and that is public, private or whatever. This is the problem at its roots.

    The investment banks and other financial institutions came up with a way to fund all of this demand for credit by securitization, off the books for a lot of it and again using borrowed money or leverage. The system broke when the housing prices busted and people did not trust the value of assets on the banks books as being sound and thus their solvency was called into question. At that point credit seized up and hasn't opened up since to any large extent.

    The global aspect of this crisis is new and uncharted. People who know the economic and financial systems and have or had responsibilities agree on that and for the most part support what has been done since Lehman failed back in September of last year. I have to go with their expertise rather than a lot of babble from supposedly knowledgeable talking heads who have never been responsible for anything.

    Alan Greenspan made a lot of mistakes while heading the FED including flooding the market with cheap money and believing that all markets are self regulated. He has admitted to the latter as a mistake in judgement on his part. Hank Paulson was a free market man all the way but in a responsible position saw what his decision about Lehman failing had caused. He also knew that the consequences of doing nothing, as did Bernanke of the Fed, would end in a total collapse of the banking system. He had to act. He made some mistakes along the way but his motive was to save the banking system from collapsing entirely. Again in uncharted waters.

    So what you are proposing is that we let CITI and some other big banks fail and stand the pain. I hear that from the guy from the WSJ all the time on TV. He has never managed anything except his mouth and never had the responsibility for anything. Lehman's failure almost brought the entire worldwide banking system to a collapse. Just consider what letting a few more would do for a while.

    Those that would allow the banking system to just fail, have no responsibility but are just parroting their ideologic message of the free market reigns and must be left alone. Hank Paulson believed in markets but he also saw the grave consequences of letting the banking system collapse and acted. I see no difference in what Obama and his people at Treasury are doing.

    There is no quick fix here unless you are of the just let em go belly up school. That alternative would bring on a depression the likes of which would dwarf the consequences of the Great Depression. But if that is what you want, continue to listen to the talking heads who have theirs and don't really give a damn about the rest of us.

  7. #7
    Crab mustard is good bigeasy's Avatar
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    Bubbles burst

    I have heard a few rumblings about how bubbles end. Usually with a fall in the value of the object of the bubble. Housing, tulips, etc.

    The trillions designed to prop up the economy may well create a money bubble, as in a lot of dollars floating around.

    Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe is printing notes in million Peso ( whatever they are called) denominations. But that doesn't indicate great wealth. He took Rhodesia from the bread basket of Africa to Zimbabwe, the basketcase of Africa. He instituted a program of "social reform" without consideration of the economic effects.

    Are we looking at an inflationary spiral? What will be the value of our monies that we preserved for the rainy day?

    Do you have confidence that our elected leaders know "Whats going on"?
    Last edited by bigeasy; 02-24-2009 at 11:00 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bigeasy View Post
    I have heard a few rumblings about how bubbles end. Usually with a fall in the value of the object of the bubble. Housing, tulips, etc.

    The trillions designed to prop up the economy may well create a money bubble, as in a lot of dollars floating around.

    Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe is printing notes in million Peso ( whatever they are called) denominations. But that doesn't indicate great wealth. He took Rhodesia from the bread basket of Africa to Zimbabwe, the basketcase of Africa. He instituted a program of "social reform" without consideration of the economic effects.

    Are we looking at an inflationary spiral? What will be the value of our monies that we preserved for the rainy day?

    Do you have confidence that our elected leaders know "Whats going on"?
    WE have been in an inflationary spiral of varying proportions ever since we went off the gold standard and started using fiat currencies around the world. Sounds like Ron Paul. The amount of inflation has varied over the years but it is always a positive number. Over time adjustments are made to keep up. remember back in the Carter years when the deficits of the Johnson and Nixon administrations came due and inflation rose to the 10% to 15% level? the workers of the country never really caught up from that and it caused more borrowing to maintain the system. The short term deficits don't make much difference like for the stimulus if it is arrested after the two years and we get on a plan to reduce the amount of deficits being run up. Of course we have a good ways to go on that and to make up for the debt added in the last 8 years by supposedly conservative congresses.

    Do I have faith in our leaders? Yes I do. Are they going to make mistakes? yes they are. No one has ever been in a situation quite like this one before so you and everyone should expect mistakes to be made. But like Paulson, Geitner, Bernanke and Obama are trying to do what is necessary to strengthen our economy which has been hammered by this crisis.

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    Anthony's Ark is a blowboater
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    This is the problem.

    two of them.

    People were living outside of there means.

    There are very few people that should actually be lent to in the first place.

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