Blowin from the south at 30 right now... Surprised some but for others we could see it comming days ago... We've learned not to trust NOAA over the years but how do you? me? we? predict weather....?
Our brains are pretty amazing things... Miocroprocessors with gig after gig of storage... We see that when the wind goes hard south this time of year its gonna go harder south west. We see that its gonna storm pretty hard. Instinctivele we know that we are on the rats ass of a heavy duty low north of us. Where is the center of the low? Face the wind and stick your right arm out... You're pointing at it...
We know that its gonna continue clocking around west, then north west, it will clear and continue to blow hard as the temperature drops... How do we know? Cause we've seen it repeat this pattern a hundred times over. There may be subtle differences but almost always the same.
Come summer we know where the thunderstorm is gonna start then where ist gonna move... For the most part we are right... Sometimes currents created from the storm rotation relative to the other storms may deviate path. Thats tough to predict.
I know when I see a mackeral sky its gonna be ugly in a few hours. I know that high cirrus means a change in a couple days. I'm facinated by animals and their abilities to predict. The year we had Frances and Jeanne hurricanses come through. The turtles at the lake built their nests high. The next year the reporters scoffed when they built their nests even higher. They laughed at the turtles saying two years in a row to get hit just wont happen... They laughed late into the season... Then here came Wilma. Screamin cat 3 nailed the lake head on...
I pay attention to things like ants climbing trees or walls. I look for bird movement. I saw robinsdown here this year way early and think its gonna be a cold one ...
What are some of the things you do or see to "predict" weather???
when the white cranes, sparrows, dragon fly's and pelicans start flying after frontal passage, i know i have about a 3-6 hr window before the wind starts filling in from the north west.
when the GD detectors in the vents start going off, i know its about to rain.
when the current is 60- 110 degrees different, i know the front is about 90miles away.
when i cant see the flare on a rig 35miles away anymore, i know the air is saturated enough to start dumpin ass with in the next 2 hrs.
when the phones and internet go out, i know the front has reached houston.
when a engine or thruster has an issue, i know we are in for minimum 30mile an hour
then again, not many people, if any, will understand what any of that means
When my beer bottle blows over on the cocktail table I have on my fighting chair pedestal, I know not to go out....aside from that NOAA is usually right on up here, I average the Isle of Shoals lighthouse and 44013 16 miles east of Boston and get a pretty good picture. One thing I count on is fronts to move quicker by 4-6 hours than NOAA says. Everything clears out of the NW up here to the tune of 25-35 MPH, 6-8 foot seas in no time, so I'm always ready for that, with my 44 foot Jersey, 17 tons, I don't have a lot to worry about, except the beer bottle falling over that is.......
The only thing NOAA can seem to get right is wind speed and direction. They screw up the sea forcast all the time. Deep I think you are right about a cold winter. The white oak tree in my yard was loaded up with acorns and that usually means a cold winter.
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