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#11 |
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Crab mustard is good
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Hatteras Village, North Carolina
Posts: 668
Credits: 5,723.8
Boat: Big Easy
Home Port: Hatteras, NC
Occupation: Charter boat operator
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I still think
a domestic drilling program in the US would puncture the speculative bubble.
We are headed for massive problems.
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_________________ Captain Cliff Parker www.bigeasycharters.com Hatteras, NC year round |
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#12 |
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I think Admin is going to let me have this space
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Nantucket, MA
Posts: 1,285
Credits: 1,205.3
Best Catch: 15 BIG sailfish in a day
Occupation: New England Patriot
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Bigeasy you are right
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#13 |
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Joe Cannavo - Sales
Cardinal Yacht Sales Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,563
Credits: 3,459.7
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The real reason why oil prices are rising
By now it is becoming too obvious that the United States is playing the oil game all over again. And this is the desperate gamble of a country whose economy is neck deep in trouble. Given this scenario, managing prices of oil is central to the US economic architecture. Expectedly, this gamble has been played in a great alliance between the US government, US financial sector and the media. . Coinciding with a weak dollar and this speculative interest of the US financial sector, prices of commodities have soared globally. And most of these investments are bets placed by hedge and pension funds, always on the lookout for risky but high-yielding investments. What is indeed interesting to note here is that unlike margin requirements for stocks which are as high as 50 per cent in many markets, the margin requirements for commodities is a mere 5-7 per cent. This implies that with an outlay of a mere $260 billion these speculators would be able to take positions of approximately $5 trillion -- yes, $5 trillion! -- in the futures markets. It is estimated that half of these are bets placed on oil. * Oil price hike: Govt can't save you: PM Readers may note that oil is internationally traded in New York and London and denominated in US dollar only. Naturally, it has been opined by experts that since the advent of oil futures, oil prices are no longer controlled by OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries). Rather, it is now done by Wall Street. . Today's oil prices are believed to be determined by the four Anglo-American financial companies-turned-oil traders, viz., Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, J P Morgan Chase, and Morgan Stanley. It is only they who have any idea about who is entering into oil futures or derivative contracts. It is also they who are placing bets on oil prices and in the process ensuring that the prices of oil futures go up by the day. But how does the increase in the price of this oil in the futures market determine the prices of oil in the spot markets? Crucially, does speculation in oil influence and determine the prices of oil in the spot markets? Answering these questions as to whether speculation has supercharged the demand for oil The Economist, in its recent issue, states: 'But that is plain wrong. Such speculators do not own real oil. Every barrel they buy in the futures markets they sell back again before the contract ends. That may raise the price of 'paper barrels,' but not of the black stuff refiners turn into petrol. It is true that high futures prices could lead someone to hoard oil today in the hope of a higher price tomorrow. But inventories are not especially full just now and there are few signs of hoarding.' On both counts -- that speculation in oil is not pushing up oil prices, as well as on the issue of the build-up of inventories -- the venerable Economist is wrong. The finding of US Senate Committee in 2006 In June 2006, when the oil price in the futures markets was about $60 a barrel, a Senate Committee in the US probed the role of market speculation in oil and gas prices. The report points out that large purchase of crude oil futures contracts by speculators has, in effect, created additional demand for oil and in the process driven up the future prices of oil.at over $139 a barrel ! The report further stated that it was 'difficult to quantify the effect of speculation on prices,' but concluded that 'there is substantial evidence that the large amount of speculation in the current market has significantly increased prices.' " NO SHIT " The report further estimated that speculative purchases of oil futures had added as much as $20-25 per barrel to the then prevailing price of $60 per barrel. In today's prices of approximately $130 per barrel, this means that approximately $100 per barrel could be attributed to speculation! Bastard's But the report found a serious loophole in the US regulation of oil derivatives trading, which according to experts could allow even a 'herd of elephants to walk to through it.' The report pointed out that US energy futures were traded on regulated exchanges within the US and subjected to extensive oversight by the Commodities Future Trading Commission (CFTC) -- the US regulator for commodity futures market. Consequently, as there is no monitoring of such trading by the oversight body, the committee believes that it allows speculators to indulge in price manipulation. Finally, the report concludes that to a certain extent, whether or not any level of speculation is 'excessive' lies entirely in the eye of the beholder. In the absence of data, however, it is impossible to begin the analysis or engage in an informed debate over whether our energy markets are functioning properly or are in the midst of a speculative bubble. Now to answer the second leg of the question: how speculators are able to translate the future prices into spot prices. The answer to this question is fairly simple. After all, oil price is highly inelastic -- i.e. even a substantial increase in price does not alter the consumption pattern. No wonder, a mere 3-4 per cent annual global growth has translated into more than a 40 per cent annual increase in prices for the past three or four years. But there is more to it. One may note that the world supply and demand is evenly matched at about 85 million barrels every day. Only if supplies exceed demand by a substantial margin can any downward pressure on oil prices be created. In contrast, if someone with deep pockets picks up even a small quantity of oil, it dramatically alters the delicate global demand-supply gap, creating enormous upward pressure on prices. What is interesting to note is that the US strategic oil reserves were at approximately 350 million barrels for a decade till 2006. However, for the past year and a half these reserves have doubled to more than 700 million barrels. Naturally, this build-up of strategic oil reserves by the US (of 350 million barrels) is adding enormous pressure on the oil demand and consequently its prices. Do the oil speculators know of this reserves build-up by the US and are indulging in rampant speculation? Are they acting in tandem with the US government? Worse still, are they bordering on recklessness knowing fully well that if the oil prices fall the US government will be forced to a 'Bears Stearns' on them and bail them out? One is not sure. But who foots bill at such high prices? At an average price of even $100 per barrel, the entire cost for the purchase of this additional 350 million barrels by the US works out to a mere $35 billion. Needless to emphasise, this can be funded by the US by allowing it currency printing presses to work overtime. After all, it has a currency that is acceptable globally and people worldwide are willing to exchange it for precious oil. No wonder Goldman Sachs predicts that oil will touch $200 to a barrel shortly, knowing fully well that the US government will back its prediction. And, in the past three years alone the world has paid an estimated additional $3 trillion for its oil purchases. Oil speculators (and not oil producers) are the biggest beneficiaries of this price increase. In the process, the US has been able to keep the value of the US dollar afloat -- perhaps at an extra cost of a mere $35 billion to its exchequer! The global crude oil price rise is complex, sinister and beyond innocent economic theories of demand and supply. It is speculation, geopolitics and much more. Obviously, there is a symbiotic link between the US, the US dollar and the oil prices. And unless this truth is understood and the link broken, oil prices cannot be controlled. CARDINAL JOE ![]() |
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#15 |
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Bite me
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: I live in New Jersey, and sail out of Point Pleasant.
Posts: 246
Credits: 1,274.3
Boat: 29 foot seafox express
Home Port: cassidy's marina matedeconk river
Best Catch: haven't caught it yet
Occupation: I maintain the data network for Citigroup
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I paid $4.28 a gallon for gas yesterday at Hoffman Marina in Point Pleasant.
Wish i woulda known I was trolling down past Seaside . I woulda trolled a little further! |
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#16 |
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Nappy Haired Tackle Ho
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: gilbertsville ,pa / indian river delaware
Posts: 5,561
Credits: 3,281.3
Boat: 27 grady 61 viking eb
Home Port: indian river del
Best Catch: " marlin" my dog
Occupation: pirate
Blog Entries: 1
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joe , can you send 2000 gallons to dock g13 indian river marina
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#17 | |
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#1 Lurker
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: in the hills of west virginia , almost heaven; taylor county northcentral region.
Posts: 1
Credits: 1,190.0
Boat: had a tournament trx sold 3 years ago.
Home Port: now consider chincoteague island as home away from home
Best Catch: 61 lb amberjack out of rudee's marina 5-7 yr ago
Occupation: sold appliances when at sears
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Quote:
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#18 |
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Yep, your gonna need stitches
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Hatteras/Richmond
Posts: 85
Credits: 5,229.0
Occupation: Computer/charter business
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A total shutdown of offshore and Alaska oil
sure helps the speculators. They have been reassured by our congress that the USA will not drill or build anything re energy that would interfere with the runup in energy prices. The speculators see no downside risk.
The politcians see little political risk as they shift blame to the Administration and the oil companies. The environmentalists have won. The entry of the Polar Bear on the threatened species act is another nail in the energy coffin. The political and environmental elites don't give a damn about the rest of us. They will fill up their airplanes and fly to Davos and their accountants will pay the bill. WAKE UP AMERICA. AN AGGRESSIVE DOMESTIC ENERGY PROGRAM WOULD REJUVENATE OUR ECONOMY. We are on the wrong path at present. Opec has no competition.
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"What are you prepared to do??"
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#19 | |
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Joe Cannavo - Sales
Cardinal Yacht Sales Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,563
Credits: 3,459.7
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Quote:
Eppefour - for you no problem just tell them i send you over for some discounted fuel , see if the prices goes up ? " Tuesday Special " !!!!!!!!! HA! ha! I'm not making any money on my fuel dock , after all my expense's now ! And you want a special discount on Fu-king Tuesday ???????????? Did you ever hear of The Story of the Guy who road in on the WHITE Horse ! Cardinal Joe ![]() |
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#20 |
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Pit Monkey First Class
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 21
Credits: 1,190.0
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CT fuel dock prices Gas $465 Diesel $515
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